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Saudi Arabia is floating its own security deal, modelled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords
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The Financial Times reported Thursday that Saudi Arabia has been quietly pitching a non-aggression pact between Middle Eastern states and Iran, modelled on the Cold War framework that gave the Soviet Union territorial guarantees in Europe in exchange for sovereignty and human rights commitments. Multiple European capitals and EU institutions have backed the push.
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The problem: the US-Iran back-channel is focused exclusively on the nuclear programme. It doesn't cover missiles, drones, or proxy networks, which are the issues that most concern Saudi Arabia and the UAE. An Arab diplomat cited by the FT said a Helsinki-style framework “would be welcomed by most Arab and Muslim states, and by Iran.” Iran has long wanted the region to manage its own security without Western military presence as the default. That shared interest is what Riyadh is working.
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WHY IT MATTERS
This is the Gulf states positioning for whatever follows — a signed deal, a long ceasefire, or a stalemate with fewer US troops. A nuclear deal, if one materialises, won't touch Iran's missile stockpile or proxy networks once US forces draw down. Riyadh is trying to build the guardrails before that conversation needs to happen. Whether it produces anything formal is a separate question.
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Two enforcement regimes in the same waterway, with no neutral arbiter
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Unauthorized commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to near zero per day, per UANI's maritime shipping tracker. Before the conflict, roughly 3,000 vessels transited each month, per UANI. Iran's “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” now requires ships to submit cargo details, ownership information, and route plans and wait for a permit decision or a “hostile” designation. About 30 vessels transited after the mechanism was established, per Iranian state media — ships that applied for and received Iran's clearance, not independent verification. The US says it has redirected 70 vessels and disabled four to enforce its own blockade on ships moving to or from Iranian ports.
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Any commercial vessel approaching Hormuz now faces a dual compliance problem: the US blocks traffic to Iranian ports, while Iran's new authority permits or blocks traffic in both directions. There's no neutral arbiter. The US shepherd ship plan to escort commercial traffic through, which was discussed in May, has been paused indefinitely. That's why the Xi-Trump statement on Hormuz matters, and why the absence of any mechanism behind it also matters.
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WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
Brent remains around $106/bbl. UAE pump prices aren't changing this cycle; the next window is end of May. The channel constraint affects shipping costs and supply timelines more broadly. Freight insurance premiums are still elevated on any route touching the Gulf.
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Art Dubai is running at Madinat Jumeirah through Sunday. Free entry.
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Art Dubai runs through Sunday May 17 at Madinat Jumeirah. Free entry for visitors. Over 75 gallery presentations, large-scale installations, performances, and talks, per What's On Dubai. It is the only major cultural event of the week running through the weekend.
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If you are going: mornings before noon are cooler and less crowded. Madinat parking is easiest from the Souk side. Weather today: 30°C, sunny with dusty winds easing after midnight. Seas rough.
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WEEKEND PICK
Art Dubai has historically been the city's best people-watching event of the year: the kind of crowd that turns up when Dubai is in the middle of everything and still wants to be seen at an opening. Go Saturday morning, park on the Souk side, and you'll be done before the heat arrives. Sunday afternoon is the close; galleries tend to be quieter but the energy of a last-day crowd is its own thing.
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