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The US government now assumes Hormuz stays closed through late May
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The US Energy Information Administration released its May Short-Term Energy Outlook and revised its forecasts to reflect what it calls "a much bigger and lengthier hit to global oil supplies" than its April baseline assumed. The EIA now assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through late May 2026, with shipping traffic beginning to recover only in June. Global oil inventories are expected to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day across the second quarter. Historically steep. Brent crude stood at around $110 per barrel at the May 12 close, according to Fortune and Bloomberg data, up on the ceasefire rejection news.
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The original assumptions about a fast Hormuz resolution were wrong. The EIA is now saying so officially. That matters for freight costs, airline fuel surcharges, and the consumer price trajectory for everyone managing a household budget or running a business in Dubai.
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WHAT TO DO
If your business imports goods through sea freight, the EIA's late-May timeline is now the official US government planning horizon. Price your procurement windows accordingly. The supply shock isn't finished yet by official estimate.
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Eid Al Adha: the moon sighting is Friday. Travel prices are already moving.
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The UAE moon sighting committee meets on Friday May 17. If the crescent is sighted, Arafat Day is Tuesday May 26, Eid runs Wednesday May 27 to Friday May 29, and stacked against the UAE Friday-Saturday weekend that lands as six consecutive days off — the longest break of the year. If the crescent isn’t sighted Friday, the entire window shifts back by one day. The shape of the break is the same either way; the exact dates are what shifts.
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Three things to do this week, in order of how much money each can save you. First, travel. DXB outbound fares to India, Pakistan, the UK and the Philippines historically lock in their full Eid premium within hours of the moon sighting confirmation. If your dates can flex, book before Friday evening. Second, school exam scheduling. Most Dubai schools have already moved end-of-year exams to before May 25 or after June 1 to avoid the Eid window, but the revised schedules tend to drop quietly in parent portals this week — check yours by Thursday if you haven’t seen it. Third, employer leave. The four official holidays (May 26-29 or May 27-30 depending on sighting) are paid; private-sector employers can extend those days at their discretion but are not obligated to.
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If you run a small business in Dubai, the six-day window is the longest forced operating decision you’ll make this year. Hospitality and retail typically stay open and lean into the break; professional services and most B2B operations close. Decide by Friday so you can communicate to clients before the holiday calendar locks. The Beijing summit (above) won’t change any of this; Eid timing is independent of the war.
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WHAT TO DO
If your dates can flex, book outbound travel before Friday evening — that's when the moon sighting confirmation typically locks in the full Eid airfare premium. Check your school's revised end-of-year exam schedule by Thursday if it hasn't been published in the parent portal. If you run a small business, make the open-or-closed call this week and tell clients before the holiday calendar firms up.
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Day 3 back at the school gate; Emirates at 96%
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Schools are in their third consecutive day of in-person learning after KHDA confirmed the return to campus on May 11. No new safety alerts have been issued. The temporary UAE airspace restrictions in place from May 5 to 10 were fully lifted by the UAE's civil aviation authority. Emirates is operating approximately 96% of its pre-conflict global network, with four routes still suspended, according to LoyaltyLobby and AvA2Z aviation tracking: Baghdad, Basra, Tehran, and the Male-to-Colombo sector. Flexible rebooking is available through May 31 for flights booked between February 28 and May 31.
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WHAT TO DO
If you're flying on an affected route, check the Emirates app before heading to DXB. Rebooking through May 31 is active. The four suspended routes are Baghdad, Basra, Tehran, and the Male-to-Colombo sector. All other Emirates routes are operating.
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