Crisis Mode: Day 35

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Iran's Hormuz toll booth is now permanent. Every ship pays $2 million to pass.

Five weeks ago, Iran blocked the traditional route through the Strait of Hormuz. What started as a wartime squeeze has become something else entirely: a controlled shipping corridor at Larak Island, staffed by IRGC personnel, with fixed tolls, cargo inspections, and bilateral transit deals. This is no longer a blockade. It is infrastructure.

No ship has used the traditional Hormuz route since March 15. Lloyd's List Intelligence tracked 62 vessel transits through the Larak corridor as of April 2. Each one pays $2 million. IRGC personnel verify cargo, ownership, and destination before granting access. Shipowners must submit detailed manifests and ownership structures in advance. Vessels that do not comply are denied passage.

The toll adds $4 to $6 per barrel on all oil moving through the strait, layering billions in friction onto global markets each month. India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, and China are negotiating bilateral deals with Tehran for passage. Not international agreements. Country-by-country side deals, each on Iran's terms.

For Dubai residents, the downstream effect is direct. Nearly everything in the UAE arrives by sea. The Hormuz surcharge flows into grocery prices, construction materials, consumer goods, and fuel logistics. The countries cutting their own deals tells you something important: the world is adapting to this arrangement, not waiting for it to end.

1  Air France did not land. Suspension extended to April 19.

Yesterday's brief flagged Air France's expected return. It did not happen. The suspension has been pushed to April 19, and the airline's summer 2026 schedule is already redirecting capacity to Asia and North America. Paris is not planning for a quick return to Dubai.

British Airways remains suspended to May 31. KLM (part of the AF-KLM group) is also suspended through April 19. United is out until April 19. Turkish Airlines is aiming for an April resumption but has not confirmed dates. Lufthansa, which returned March 28, remains the only major European carrier operating direct flights to Dubai. IndiGo is running 98 weekly flights, one of the most consistent services through the crisis.

Passengers on cancelled Air France flights can get a full refund, free rebooking to May 17, or a one-year voucher valid across AF, KLM, and Delta.

2  Five weeks of interceptions. The MoD cumulative numbers.

Today marks 34 days since February 28. UAE air defences have intercepted 457 ballistic missiles, 19 cruise missiles, and 2,038 drones. On April 1 alone: 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones engaged. April 2: 19 ballistic missiles and 26 drones. That is 85 projectiles in 48 hours. The pace has not slowed.

Minor damage was reported near Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad) on April 2 from interceptor debris. No injuries. Twelve people have been killed since the crisis began: two Emirati military personnel, one Moroccan contractor, and nine civilians of Pakistani, Nepalese, Bangladeshi, Palestinian, and Indian nationalities. More than 188 people have been injured across 29 nationalities.

The $8.4 billion U.S. arms package approved March 20 includes THAAD radar ($4.5B), counter-drone systems ($2.1B), AMRAAMs ($1.22B), and F-16 munitions ($644M). Delivery timeline has not been announced.

3  Flying today? 114 delays at DXB already logged.

DXB is running roughly 215 to 224 flights per day this week, about 75% of normal capacity. April 1 saw 224 departures; April 2 dropped to 215. Today, 7 cancellations and 114 delays have already been recorded at DXB, with Emirates accounting for 79 of those delays. Flydubai has 65 flights scheduled.

Flights continue to be disrupted by interception events. When DXB pauses operations, diversions route to Al Maktoum International (DWC). Emirates is offering free rebooking on flights from February 28 through April 15, valid for travel through June 15. Full refunds are also available.

Day 35. Iran's Hormuz checkpoint has quietly become the new normal. Every ship pays, every cargo gets inspected, and five countries are already negotiating their own side deals with Tehran. Air France did not come back. The defence system stopped 85 projectiles in 48 hours and kept going. The numbers keep climbing but the pattern holds: the system absorbs, prices rise, life adjusts.

Tomorrow: the first full weekend under Iran's permanent Hormuz checkpoint. Whether the ships pick up, or whether the corridor narrows further.

Dubai Mornings provides general information only. Nothing here constitutes legal, financial, visa, or real estate advice. Verify all claims with official UAE sources before acting.

SOURCES

CNBC · Gulf Business · Lloyd's List Intelligence · Philstar · Air France Corporate · LoyaltyLobby · Euronews · The National · UAE Ministry of Defence (via Gulf News, Khaleej Times) · Wikipedia (MoD cumulative data) · Travel And Tour World · Emirates.com