|
Dubai MORNINGS Day 26 · Wednesday, March 25, 2026 What happened. What it means. What to do. |
| DAILY CRISIS BRIEF |
|
STATUS: DAY 26
The 5-day strike pause hits its midpoint today. No visible diplomatic progress. Brent crude bounced back to $103.56/bbl after briefly dipping below $100 on March 24. Strait of Hormuz remains closed to Western-allied shipping. NCM warning: rare tornado-risk weather event peaks Thursday night. Schools on distance learning until April 3. Taaleem (37 schools) and Cognita have applied to KHDA to reopen campuses March 30. Emirates at ~60% capacity (~300 flights/day), aiming for 100% in coming days. Thursday weather may cause flight delays. |
|
|
THE LEAD
Dubai gets four inches of rain a year. Thursday might deliver that in one afternoon.NCM, MyRadar Weather, and the Washington Post are all saying the same thing. A rare desert tornado-risk weather event is building across the UAE and peaks Thursday night into Friday morning. Expected rainfall: 3 to 6 inches. Dubai's annual average is about 4 inches. That entire year of rain could fall in a single event. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds. Hail. And yes, a confirmed tornado risk across the Middle East, including Dubai, northern Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar. MyRadar Weather flagged it specifically. The Washington Post ran it. The National ran it. Multiple independent forecasters are aligned. Wednesday builds slowly. Partly cloudy to cloudy, scattered rain through the day, light to moderate winds with some dust. Thursday is the problem. Heavy rain, strong winds, thunder. Flooding is expected, not just possible. NCEMA already addressed the anxiety overlap. Unusual sounds reported across the UAE in recent days were weather-related, from convective cloud formation. Not security threats. They urged residents to rely on official sources and not speculate. One more thing. Driving through standing water or wadis during flooding carries a Dh2,000 fine and 23 black points. Your car insurance probably won't cover flood damage if you drove into it voluntarily. Plan your Thursday now, not Thursday morning. WHAT TO DO
Move your car out of basement parking prone to flooding tonight. Do not park in low-lying areas. Charge all devices, including your kids' laptops for remote learning. If you have a Thursday flight, check Emirates now for schedule changes. Stay off the roads during heavy downpours. When you hear thunder, check NCM before you panic. |
|
|
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
1 Oil bounced back. The pause produced nothing visible.Yesterday we asked: does oil hold below $100? It did not. Brent dipped to $99.94 on March 24, below $100 for the first time since March 11. The relief lasted less than a trading session. By close of trading, Brent had climbed 4%+ intraday to $104.49 and sits at roughly $103.56 this morning. Pre-crisis, on February 28, it was $72. Still up 44%. The 5-day strike pause hits its midpoint today, Wednesday. Expiry is approximately Friday, March 28. Iran's senior Foreign Ministry official told CBS News: "We received points from the U.S. through mediators and they are being reviewed." That is not the same as negotiations. Iran continues to deny direct talks. Trump's condition for the pause was "success of ongoing meetings and discussions." Neither side has confirmed any meetings took place. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to US, Israeli, and Western-allied shipping. Container rates on the Shanghai-Jebel Ali route remain above $4,000. The supply chain bottleneck has not moved. The market gave up waiting. WHAT TO DO
April fuel prices get announced March 31. If Brent stays above $100, expect another increase. Grocery prices remain elevated because the shipping problem is unchanged, regardless of crude. Budget for that. Watch Friday, March 28. The clock runs out. 2 Two school groups just applied to bring your kids back MondayTaaleem, which operates 37 schools across the UAE, has formally applied to KHDA, ADEK, and the Ministry of Education to reopen campuses from Monday, March 30. Cognita Group submitted a similar request. KHDA's official position: distance learning continues until Friday, April 3, with in-person resuming Monday, April 6. But schools can now apply to return earlier with "clear and detailed justifications." Each application gets reviewed individually. No blanket approvals. Parents are already getting surveys. Taaleem is asking whether you would send your children back if campuses reopen. Staff have been told to return to campuses from March 30. Taaleem says hybrid and distance options will continue alongside any return, so this is not all-or-nothing. The final decision rests with the Ministry of Education, which says it is "prioritising security and safety." Five days from now, your childcare situation could look completely different. WHAT TO DO
If your kids attend a Taaleem or Cognita school, check your email for the parent survey. If you're at a different school group, ask your admin whether they've submitted an application. The April 3 date is the default, not the ceiling. Some schools may return earlier. 3 Emirates pushing for full capacity, but Thursday's weather has other plansEmirates is operating roughly 300 flights a day at about 60% of pre-crisis capacity, per Euronews on March 24. The airline says it aims to return to 100% "in coming days." IndiGo reinstated 98 weekly flights to the UAE, covering the Delhi-Dubai and Mumbai-Dubai routes. Emirates has extended its flexible rebooking and refund policy through April 15. The problem: Thursday's severe weather event will almost certainly cause delays and diversions at DXB. Heavy rain, strong winds, reduced visibility. Emirates is already urging passengers to check schedules ahead of travel. Lufthansa's cancellation window runs through March 28, the same day the weather clears. Watch for another extension. BA remains cancelled through May 31. United through April 19. WHAT TO DO
If you are flying Thursday or Friday, check your flight status now. Do not wait until Thursday morning. If you are picking someone up at DXB on Thursday, build in extra time. Emirates' rebooking policy gives you flexibility through April 15. |
|
$103.56
brent crude per barrel
That is where Brent sits this morning. It was below $100 yesterday. Lasted less than a day. The 5-day pause is halfway done, and the market has already decided it does not believe in a breakthrough. Pre-crisis: $72. Today: $103.56. The supply chain feels every dollar of that gap. |
ONE RESOURCE
Thursday storm prep checklistDo these tonight. Not tomorrow.
|
|
Day 26. Twenty-six days of this and the most immediate threat to your Thursday is weather, not missiles. That sentence would have sounded absurd two weeks ago. It is still true that the pause is half over, oil is climbing again, and nobody has sat across a table from anyone. But two school groups asked to open their doors. Emirates says full capacity is close. And the city is preparing for a storm that, for once, has nothing to do with geopolitics. Small things. Worth noticing. Tomorrow: Thursday's storm hits. Whether DXB stays open, whether schools get the green light for Monday, and what the oil price does with two days left on the clock. |
|
|
SOURCES MyRadar Weather · Washington Post · The National · Gulf News · Gulf Business · NCEMA · NCM · CNBC · CBS News · Al Jazeera · Bloomberg · Euronews · Time Out Dubai · WhichSchoolAdvisor · Khaleej Times · KHDA · OilPriceAPI |